Post corona virus world - predictions for business

So will the corona virus create a long term change in society?
Making predictions about the future is difficult so I've probably got it wrong however that's not going to stop me.
Humans are mostly driven by habit.  We have developed some pretty deep habits pre corona virus so it's not guaranteed anything will change long term.  Once the fear element is removed we may all revert to previous behaviours.  Equally on the flip-side -  if we are in lock-down long enough and the fear persists long after lock-down then we  may actually develop new habits replacing old habits. Maybe in 20 years we will all be still socially distancing....
Ignoring human behaviours - its pretty certain the state of business after corona virus will be different compared to before it and it will have a large economic effect on a global basis.
Many businesses may have burnt through their cash reserves.  Some businesses will have benefited significantly and built up a mountain of cash.  Companies that have managed to keep going may overtake competitors that have shutdown.  It is likely that many businesses will become bankrupt - we have already seen some companies fail. So there will definitely be change in the business landscape.  Some changes may be more fundamental than others.

• Reset in human values - the corona virus has forced us to reset our values. More focus on basics of life - we have effectively had a reset on Maslows hierarchy of needs - we have focused on physical needs (food, water, etc) and safety needs.  Our desired for love and belonging (friendship, connection etc) has been repressed. In terms of businesses doing well at the moment - those at the bottom end of Maslow's hierarchy are generally doing well - food, energy, telecoms. Some businesses  in this tier are however not - clothing and landlords are not for example.  Social based activities are likely to win once we emerge from lock-down eg going out, eating out, pubs. This will be in response to being in isolation - the new novelty of going out. There is likely to be a short term boom then probably in the longer term it will revert to comparable pre virus levels.  Humans are "towards" or "away from" motivated.  If the threat of the virus persists post lock down then we will still tend to stay away from large gatherings and venues because of our "away from" motivation - it may take a while for the social distancing and "distrust" of others to disappear.  Personally I can see some parallels to our current situation and funerals.  What I mean by that is when I attend funerals I come away with good intentions of making the most of my life and not get stuck in routine.  That enthusiasm is usually pretty short lived - maybe a few days and life gets in the way and all my enthusiasm to do things differently dissipates.  I think the current situation has some parallels - firstly we want to get back to normal rather than making the most of or lives   however if we have been reflecting on our lives during our domestic prison sentence and we've thought long and hard about making the most of our lives after lock-down (self actualisation in Maslow's hierarchy of needs) - building that bucket list -  then I suspect it will be like funerals and our motivation and desires to do things differently in future will be short lived. Using the Pareto principle, I predict 80% of the population will revert to normal - just like New Years resolutions and 20% will make fundamental changes to their lives.  Generally humabs revert back to what they've always done. Even people who've had life changing wake up calls such as serious cancer usually revert back to the learnt habits of life - we are generally very predictable.
•  Reduced demand/trust in international travel.   In the short term we are unlikely to want to fly through fear of catching the virus again.  The airlines are likely to be in a mess and getting planes and staff out of their mothballed state may take some time.  If a significant percentage of airlines go bankrupt then the prices of flights will rise.  Similarly if planes are not full then prices will rise so in the short term it will be more expensive to travel internationally.  A short term knock on effect will be a rise in domestic tourism and holidays.  People will be keen to escape their home which has felt like a “prison” but too scared to fly so they will probably go camping, stay in holiday homes etc.  Hotels and other properties where it may still be difficult to social distance will take longer to recover.  Countries that are dependant on package tourism are likely to suffer until trust is restored so popular countries such as Spain, Greece etc will suffer. Sadly Greece has done a good job of containing the virus and it's economy was on the mend but it is highly dependent on tourism so likely to have a big economic hit.
• Many companies are now getting used to home working and video conference calls.  This is likely to result in a longer term change.  Firstly if companies realise this can work then increasingly people will work from home at least for a few days per week.  This will reduce demand on office space and have knock on consequences.  For example the monetary value of office space will decline as companies can get away with smaller offices.  People will commute less.  Less people in work office  means less demand for food/coffee etc in cities where offices are based.  This may in the longer term have an arbitrage effect.  Currently there is a premium for city living. If location becomes less critical we may see the premium for city real estate fall as people can live in cheap areas and work in expensive areas.   However to counter my theory it should be noted that  the price of New York real estate post 9/11 didn't fall - it went up - people love the freedom and excitement that cities can offer.
• Supply chains, nationalism and international trade.   The virus has exposed the complex and fragile nature of supply chains.  Currently the world is using China to make things.  That probably wont change but there will be increased scrutiny of supply chains.  For companies needing specialists items - sole sourcing may no longer be acceptable and companies will want to understand the supply chain for these critical items. Currently they are an abstract concept which is taken for granted with virtually no-one understanding them.    Although generally availability of food has not been an issue in the western world, it is likely that there will be increased focus on food security and local sourcing of food. This may be consumer driven but is also likely to have focus from governments.  It is likely unemployment will rise sharply due to failed businesses and governments may embark on large scale national level job creation schemes.  It is possible that we may see increased willingness for people to work in agriculture - in the UK there have been a large number of volunteers to work on farms since the normal seasonal foreign workers haven't turned up.  There may be increased nationalistic sentiment as a direct result of this questioning of the global supply chain.  Some of this existed pre corona virus anyway eg chlorinated chicken but it is likely to grow. Food is critical.  Yet the supply chains for farmers are broken.  Lambs are still being born.  Crops still need tending.  Life carries on for farmers. However there are occurrences of break-down in supporting services.  Some milk tankers are not collecting milk - cows still need milking so farmers are dumping milk into the drains.    Milk volumes are obviously finite so this has the effect of reducing supply.  Maybe demand has reduced for milk anyway but it's a harsh commercial reality for farmers that are already struggling to be profitable.  The net result is it's likely that there will be a reduction in domestic farming output.  Given half the world is in lock-down it's likely that many other companies will also have a reduction in farming output so the likely consequence is food inflation since demand won't dramatically reduce yet supply may.  Given the west has money to import food we probably won't see famine in the west but for African countries that import food and don't have money - that could be a very real scenario. I personally expect to see increased focus on farming automation.  Not all farming lends itself to automation but continuity of supply chain will be seen as critical and automation can definitely help.  Lenin was correct in stating "Every society is three meals away from chaos".
• Nationalist mentality. Distrust of China will increase.  The world is very dependant on China for making things - that's not going to change but the nature of what we choose to make in China may change.  1 year ago we would absolutely had chosen to get face masks made in China and considered domestic manufacture crazy.  Yet here we are - face masks are now seen as critical items and domestic manufacture seems a good idea.  This questioning of provenance may become more widespread.  We have already seen the questioning of allowing Huawei to have a key role in 5G networks on the grounds of national security.  The scope of questioning of what is critical and needs to have a domestic manufacturing capability is likely to be extended. Long term manufacture of face masks in the west is probably not economic - it would be cheaper to get them made in China so maybe we will see huge warehouses of personal protection equipment stockpiled "just in case".  If this is done on a large enough scale then warehouse owners may benefit due to a shortage of storage space.  Post virus - we have probably just reached "peak globalisation".
• On-line retailing has generally worked during the lock-down.  Things may have taken longer to arrive but generally its still possible to get stuff - even stuff from China.  People who previously didnt shop on-line may well continue which is likely to result in further bad news for the retail shop sector.  Expect further loss of shops on the high street.   The UK Government will be under increased pressure to scrap business rates as shops will struggle to be viable - currently on-line retailers are already working with a lower building cost base than retail shops.
• Assets and liquidity.  Historically loan interest rates has been the largest single factor in triggering asset inflation.  Although in the short term house prices and some real estate asset classes will suffer since it's almost impossible to transact a real estate sale, in the longer term with low interest rates we will see yet another asset bubble form. It probably won't be office space as demand for that s likely to fall.  I personally predict farm land will be the next asset bubble.  Borrowing money is cheap.  However with high levels of unemployment - we are likely  to see certain segments of the population with liquidity issues as they will not have access to credit.  It's likely they will have burnt through any savings they may have.   If this problem is on a large enough scale and there isnt a safety net then this could potentially lead of civil unrest.  Governments are heavily indebted so they have a vested interest in keeping interest rates low.  Bailing out the poor wont be a priority.  There will be wide-spread pressure on governments for salary increases for health care workers.  As the UK has 1M+ healthcare workers - this will be a big number.  For the rich this will lead to increased tax burden.  There will be increased pressure on governments to be more generous with helicopter money for the poorest segments of society.  The middle classes will not be eligible for these benefits but also will have lost money during the lock down - there will be a disgruntled middle class who will be significantly poorer but also likely to be the taxation targets of governments.  We may see the emergence of middle class rioting.  As people have had a lot of time to reflect on life, we may see many middle class families sell up and downsize or relocate eg buy a campsite in France, sail around the world, buy a camper van and travel etc  .  People may choose to pursue life goals or other fanciful ideas they had whilst in lock-down rather than work for the tax man.  If this happens on a large enough scale it may pose a significant tax revenue threat for governments as the middle classes "opt-out". 
• The NHS will become a saint. Frontline health care workers in intensive care fighting to keep people alive are doing a fantastic job. In UK, the media is getting behind the NHS with a ground swell of opinion and as a result the NHS will be given saint status.  Unfortunately that has a side effect.  Before the virus, the NHS was desperately in need of structural reforms - that hasn't changed yet the NHS will become the national treasure that cannot be maligned.  The government has come under criticism for testing of the corona virus to see who has been infected - particularly of NHS staff. However politicians wouldn't know a test if it was in front of them and it certainly isnt them doing the actual tests.  The NHS has the monopoly on testing.  Plenty of private companies have offered to do the testing yet top NHS bureaucrats have defended the monopoly that they should do all testing - the NHS is the cause of the bottleneck.  The government is seen to be to blame for the delays.  If we compare Germany's healthcare with the UKs, Germany has barely broken into a sweat.  Massive testing. Effective isolation. No shortages of critical care beds. The reality is once this is all over the NHS needs a fundamental structural review yet it simply won't happen. More money will be thrown at it increasing tax burden or worse the government will print money to fund the NHS.
• Shrinks, lawyers, funeral care.  With everyone in isolation there will be some winners in the long term.  Expect psychologists to be deluged with mental health issues.  People trapped in their homes will develop a range of conditions such as a agoraphobia (fear of going outside), anthropophobia  (fear of people) and other post traumatic stress related illnesses.  In some extreme cases the funeral care industry will be winners and we see a long term rise in suicides. Although interestingly, despite more deaths than normal, funeral companies are struggling to break-even.  Under takers make money from flowers, funeral cars etc - not burying people.    Lawyers are likely to be winners as well.  At least divorce lawyers.  With couples trapped together in the same house for extended periods, we will see couples coming to realisation that they don't get on, they have nothing in common and divorce is the way forward. The media has already recognised the increase in controlling relationships and abusive relationships during the lock-down. This is likely to get worse.  Once we are back in the acceptance phase I expect to see lots of lawyer activity.  NHS staff litigating on failure to provide protective equipment and placing them at risk.  Class action for infringement of human rights - you name it - it will happen.
• Freedom, liberty and big brother.  Whenever emergency laws are passed they usually persist. After 9/11 our freedom to travel was restricted.  We have paid the price of increased scrutiny at airports, longer travelling times, confiscation of items etc.  20 years on the controls and measures are still in place - in order to safeguard our security. Terrorists have moved on and found other ways to attack people such as driving vehicles into crowds.   In 1799 the UK introduced a novel new tax to raise money to fight the Napoleonic wars.  221 years later that tax is alive and well and has been adopted on a world wide basis.  Centuries after the war income tax fights on.      Israel introduced emergency laws in 1948 for the Arab-Israel war. The laws and resulting conflict still persist. Whenever governments introduce emergency legislation - it persists.  China and some other Asian countries have adopted device tracking to determine who you have interacted with/been near in order to control the spread of the virus.  Although this application is well meaning, you can guarantee that governments will continue to access the data in unintended  ways longer afterwards.  They will abuse the data long after the virus has gone.  Governments are busily swabbing people to test for the virus.  Are they also collecting your DNA without your consent?  Will this automatically end up on a police database?  Once lock-down is lifted, will your travel be restricted?  Will you need to have a tattoo on your forehead showing you are immune to the virus or clear of infection.  Will your personal healthcare information be there for all to see?  In the UK the police have been abusing their new found powers by stopping and searching people to see what they have bought when out shopping.  Thankfully the UK government chastised the police saying people are allowed to buy whatever a shop is selling - not just essential food items - however it's easy to see how new found powers can be quickly abused.  Economists are forecasting that the impact to the global economy will be 3%.  To put that in perspective the 2008 financial crash was a 0.1% hit to the global economy.  We are still paying the price for the 2008 crash now - quantitative easing was alive and well in early 2020.  Given the scale of the virus' economic impact is 30x greater maybe we can conservatively say the impact will be 12 years x 30 = 360 year impact before the economy is back to "normal" and the special measures can be stopped.
• The death of cash.  Governments are keen to eliminate cash and move to a cashless society.  Cash is seen as the key vehicle for the black economy to function and avoid paying taxes. However there are probably plenty of people who probably wish they had declared all of their income since the government will base furlough payments on historic income/tax payments.  Everyone is being encouraged to use cashless payments to avoid the spread of the virus through physical cash.  The homeless are an obvious example of people reliant on physical cash either through begging, finding dropped money etc.  However it's likely cashless payment adoption will accelerate.  However cashless payments are a supply chain which no-one understands.  I've seen plenty of businesses that cannot function  when the power goes off and going cashless makes the situation worse.  Many people have been left cashless when their bank upgraded the software to their systems, or rather failed the upgrade, resulting in people left cashless for days. As the human race moves towards a cashless society, this will be the biggest vulnerability to society.   If terrorists attacked the cashless network then chaos will prevail. Maybe a virus will cause the cashless society to collapse - an electronic virus that is.
• Austerity++?    After the 2008 financial crash, governments embarked on large scale austerity measures.  Given the scale of the virus impact to the global economy, will we see austerity++? Governments are printing huge volumes of money to prop up the economy.  It's a big experiment.  The idea is that the demand side of the economy still exists and once the brakes are taken off, the supply side will come out of hibernation. Overnight economies have shifted from capitalism to communism.  Governments are left with very few options.  Cut costs (austerity),  inflation and debt forgiveness.  It very unclear if austerity will be an option - at least in the UK. Saudi has seen a collapse in oil demand and oil price - it has already started austerity.   There will be increased pressure to pay healthcare workers more money and other key workers will be seen as deserving.  Do governments just let businesses fail - is so it will be a big recession?  Will inflation come to the rescue?  Maybe not.  The price of oil has plummeted.  It's seen as a key inflation barometer - right now we are in deflation.   Will the pent up demand solve everything?  Maybe not.  People are getting used to simpler lives.  Fashion is already a victim.  People dont need to keep buying new clothes.  Maybe we have reached "peak consumerism" and people will make do with less or is the religion of consumerism just going through a loss of belief at the moment because the temples are closed.  If the religion is out of favour  then large parts of the retail economy will never recover. So what about debt forgiveness?  Maybe we need a jubilee?  We associate jubilee's with the Queen however it dated back thousands of years and was a proclamation of debt forgiveness.  Do we simply forget about all debts?  There will be obvious losers - like banks. Does that mean I don't owe tax and no longer have to pay the mortgage? If so it's rewarding people with big debts and penalising those who have lived within their means.  The biggest debtors are governments - who exactly is losing if governments decide to forgive their own debts?  Pension funds will but does that also mean the pension fund no longer needs to pay the money it owes me?  Could this work? Is this really just communism - we all become equal somehow?   Strangely some of these thoughts are happening right now and could spell the end of the European Union.  Spain and Italy have been hit hardest in Europe by the virus and need a financial rescue package.  However Germany has always viewed them as ill disciplined with money.   In the jubilee language Germany has been prudent, lived modestly & saved money whilst the southern countries havent.  These countries all use the Euro as their currency -  Italy and Spain need to finance their virus response whilst Germany hasnt really been affected so doesnt.   This is leading to some strained relationships which ultimately could, at best, cause Spain and Italy to exit the Euro and at worst the collapse of the European Union.  The idea of a jubilee in debt forgiveness is clearly not going to happen a the moment in the EU since Germany would be the biggest loser.  Who knows what the future holds.  We are in strange times - maybe we are still to see some even stranger things to come.